ZAMANLARARASI DIŞ DENGE KISITI YAKLAŞIMI ÇERÇEVESİNDE TÜRKİYE’DE BÜTÇE AÇIĞININ SÜRDÜRÜLEBİLİRLİĞİ

mehmet mercan
1.444 339

Öz


Bu çalışmada, Türkiye'deki bütçe açığının sürdürülebilirliği; 1987:M1-2013:M2 dönemi verileriyle üç farklı model kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir: Modellerde, merkezi yönetim reel bütçe gelirleri ve merkezi yönetim reel bütçe harcamaları (faiz ödemeleri dahil) serileri kullanılarak, Johansen eş-bütünleşme yöntemiyle test edilmiştir. Analizde 2001 sonrası uygulanan “güçlü ekonomiye geçiş programı” nın etkilerini görmek amacıyla, 1987-2013 dönemi, iki alt dönem ve tam dönem olarak araştırılmıştır. Sonuç olarak; 1987-2001 döneminde Türkiye’de bütçe açığının oldukça zayıf formda, 2001-2013 döneminde ise güçlü formda sürdürülebilir olduğu ve 1987-2013 döneminde ise zayıf formda sürdürülebilir olduğu bulgusu elde edilmiştir. 


Anahtar kelimeler


Bütçe açığı, Sürdürülebilirlik, Zamanlararası Denge Kısıtı.

Tam metin:

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