DIŞ TİCARETİN DÖVİZ KURU DEĞİŞMELERİNE DUYARLILIĞI: SEÇİLMİŞ GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER ÜZERİNE BİR İNCELEME

Celal KIZILDERE, Burhan KABADAYI, Ömer Selçuk EMSEN
1.594 467

Öz


Özet: Çalışmanın amacı yükselen ekonomilerin dış ticaret yapısını etkileyen faktörlerin belirlenmesi ve özellikle dış ticaretin döviz kuruna karşı gösterdiği hassasiyetin ortaya konulmasıdır. Çalışmada Türkiye’nin de içinde bulunduğu yükselen ekonomilerde döviz kurlarının ülkelerin ihracat ve ithalatları üzerindeki etkiler ayrı ayrı incelenmiştir. Döviz kurunun yükselen ekonomiler üzerindeki etkileri alternatif ekonometrik modeller vasıtasıyla incelenmiştir. Çalışmanın zaman serisi 1991 ve 2010 yıllarını kapsamaktadır ve panel veri analizileri kullanılmıştır. Serilerin durağanlık ve eşbütünleşme özelliklerinden hareketle, kısa dönemli ilişkiler hata düzeltme modelleriyle incelenmiştir. Sonuç olarak teorik açıdan beklenilen katsayılar elde edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler: Dış ticaret, Döviz kurları, Panel veri analizi.

The Sensitivity of Foreign Trade to Exchange Rates: The Case Study of Selected Emerging Countries

Abstract: The aim of this study is to identify factors that affect the foreign trade of Developing Countries (DC) and especially to set forth the sensitivity of foreign trade to exchange rate changes. In this study, it is examined the effects of exchange rate changes on exports and imports of 18 emerging economies including Turkey separately. The effects of exchange rate changes on emerging countries’ external trade were analyzed by using alternative econometric models. The time sample of the analysis cover the years between 1991 and 2010 and the panel data analysis were applied. Depending on stationary and co-integrating properties of the variables, error correction models were used to check short run relationships.  Thus, coefficients’ signs of the variables used in models were found theoretically expected.

Keywords: Foreign trade, Exchange rates, Panel Data Analysis.

Jel Codes: C33, F10, F31


Anahtar kelimeler


Dış ticaret, Döviz kurları, Panel veri analizi.

Tam metin:

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